RMI_Economics_of_Electrifying_Buildings_2018.pdf
Thiswas published in The above is an abstract. The actual paper is downloaded by giving name, company, and email
Multiple authors are listed, from RMI Rocky Mountain Institute- a primary consultant for the Jan, 2020 NJ BPU Energy Master Plan.
This 2018 paper:
- Compares costs of heatpumps vs fossil fuel (with and without A/C)- both new construction and retrofit in 4 geographic/climate locations
- Concludes that "replacing natural gas furances and water heaters with electric heat pumpdevices is often not cost-effective at today's costs."
- Recommends rapid electrification of propane and heating oil [and- by extension- baseboard resistance electric heat- common in NJ]
- recommends “Demand flexibility” by putting load control In a residence (combines with batteries and electrical vehicle(battery?)\
- recommends the electrical utility use time-of-day billing (using smart meters?) – so customers are incented to have “demand flexibility” that applies load when utility price is lowest (such as mid-day with peak solar generation) [I believe that JCP&L and PSE&G have announced and are in various stages of installing smart meters in all their accounts.]
- Expects:
- price declines from20-38% by 2050 (per NREL) for air source heat pumps(1)
- contractor price decreases with contractor experience and utility bulk purchasing agreements
- Electricity demand flexibility will lower customer cost
- carbon pricing will help
- increases in natural gas prices will help
Steve Miller
(1) “Electrification Futures Study Technology
Data,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
accessed February 26, 2018, https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/78; With RMI analysis to compare 2050
costs to the average of 2015 and 2020 costs